Tuesday, April 30, 2013
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
MLB's Top 100 Players right now list is insane.
Each year MLB network airs a series of specials revealing their top 100 players coming in to the new season. Below is the complete list but before that, some initial thoughts:
Why is Ryan Howard here at all? I am just going to go ahead and say this, Ryan Howard is not a good baseball player. 9 years ago he was very good, he had one stellar year and then a few very good years. In the last three seasons he has been average at best and terrible at worst (his last three seasons WAR were -.1.0, 1.7 and 1.4). He strikes out constantly, can't hit lefties, doesn't get on base a lot and his power numbers are trending lower every year, yup that's your 100th best player in baseball.
Snubs : Obviously with a list of 100 guys you won't get too many flat out snubs but I see two glaring omissions here - Aaron Hill and Ben Zobrist. Hill posted a slash of .302/.360/.522 with 26 home runs while barely missing any games, I am guessing the knock against him is that he only had a great 2012 and the list is supposed to factor in three seasons but c'mon, Trout is # 1. The Zorilla remains a great player. He puts up above average offensive stats and continues to be the Shane Battier of baseball who kills it with stellar base running, defense and other hard to quantify stats.
They got #1 right: Mike Trout is the best player in baseball and should have been MVP this year. I am glad MLBN acknowledged this.
What will it take for R.A. Dickey to get some mother lovin' respect? Anybody who read this blog knows that it is largely devoted to trying to get people to respect how good Dickey is. R.A had quietly excellent seasons in 2010 and 2011 after which I felt he was one of the best pitchers in baseball, many people disagreed. The guy then comes out in 2012, wins a Cy Young, has one of the most dominant months of any pitcher ever, essentially invents a new kind of knuckleball, throws multiple one hitters and leads the leauge in IP and K's and comes in second for ERA and Wins. But how does MLBN rank him on their list...50. 50? 50! 50!!!
I mean this is honestly absurd. By any metric over the last three years R.A has been one of the best pitchers in baseball and was top 3 in 2012 and the best they can do is 50? For what it's worth, I think R.A. is the best pitcher in baseball, I can accept arguments that Verlander and King Felix are better but anyone else is not in the conversation. Even more so, in 2013, Dickey is going to be even better than last year.
Dickey rant over. The full list is below, shoot me tweets or comments with your thoughts.
____________________________________________________________________________
100. Ryan Howard – 1B – Philadelphia Phillies
99. Sergio Romo – CL – San Francisco Giants
98. Yu Darvish – SP – Texas Rangers
97. Elvis Andrus – SS – Texas Rangers
96. Chase Utley – 2B – Philadelphia Phillies
95. Adrian Gonzalez – 1B – Los Angeles Dodgers
94. Jacoby Ellsbury – OF – Boston Red Sox
93. Victor Martinez – C/DH – Detroit Tigers
92. Jordan Zimmermann – SP – Washington Nationals
91. Michael Bourn – CF – Cleveland Indians
90. Aroldis Chapman – P – Cincinnati Reds
89. Adam Wainwright – SP – St. Louis Cardinals
88. Jon Lester – SP – Boston Red Sox
87. Mike Moustakas – 3B – Kansas City Royals
86. Brett Lawrie – 3B – Toronto Blue Jays
85. Michael Morse – 1B/LF – Seattle Mariners
84. Allen Craig – 1B – St. Louis Cardinals
83. Torii Hunter – RF – Detroit Tigers
82. Carlos Beltran – RF – St. Louis Cardinals
81. Carlos Ruiz – C – Philadelphia Phillies
80. Brian McCann – C – Atlanta Braves
79. Miguel Montero – C- Arizona Diamondbacks
78. Curtis Granderson – CF – New York Yankees
77. Jim Johnson – CL – Baltimore Orioles
76. Jason Motte – CL – St. Louis Cardinals
75. Ian Desmond – SS – Washington Nationals
74. Chase Headley – 3B – San Diego Padres
73. Adam LaRoche – 1B – Washington Nationals
72. Yovani Gallardo - SP - Milwaukee Brewers
71. Madison Bumgarner – SP – San Francisco Giants
70. Alex Gordon – LF – Kansas City Royals
69. B.J. Upton – CF – Atlanta Braves
68. James Shields – SP – Kansas City Royals
67. David Freese – 3B – St. Louis Cardinals
66. J.J. Hardy – SS – Baltimore Orioles
65. Kyle Lohse – SP – St. Louis Cardinals
64. Wade Miley – SP – Arizona Diamondbacks
63. Johnny Cueto – SP – Cincinnati Reds
62. Jonathan Papelbon – CL – Philadelphia Phillies
61. Mariano Rivera – CL – New York Yankees
60. David Ortiz – DH – Boston Red Sox
59. Jason Heyward – RF – Atlanta Braves
58. Austin Jackson – CF – Detroit Tigers
57. Zack Greinke – SP – Los Angeles Dodgers
56. Chris Sale – SP – Chicago White Sox
55. Billy Butler – DH – Kansas City Royals
54. Bryce Harper – LF – Washington Nationals
53. Derek Jeter – SS – New York Yankees
52. Starlin Castro – SS – Chicago Cubs
51. Troy Tulowitzki – SS – Colorado Rockies
50. R.A. Dickey – SP – Toronto Blue Jays
49. Gio Gonzalez – SP – Washington Nationals
48. Matt Wieters – C – Baltimore Orioles
47. A.J. Pierzynski – C- Texas Rangers
46. Roy Halladay – SP – Philadelphia Phillies
45. Matt Cain – SP – San Francisco Giants
44. Pablo Sandoval – 3B – San Francisco Giants
43. Josh Willingham – LF – Minnesota Twins
42. Yoenis Cespedes – LF – Oakland Athletics
41. Matt Holliday – LF – St. Louis Cardinals
40. Ian Kinsler – 2B – Texas Rangers
39. Edwin Encarnacion – 1B – Toronto Blue Jays
38. Joe Mauer – C – Minnesota Twins
37. Jered Weaver – SP – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
36. Jay Bruce – RF – Cincinnati Reds
35. Justin Upton – LF – Atlanta Braves
34. Dustin Pedroia – 2B – Boston Red Sox
33. Paul Konerko – 1B – Chicago White Sox
32. Aramis Ramirez - 3B Milwaukee Brewers
31. Brandon Phillips – 2B – Cincinnati Reds
30. Carlos Gonzalez – LF – Colorado Rockies
29. Ryan Zimmerman – 3B – Washington Nationals
28. Jose Bautista – RF – Toronto Blue Jays
27. Craig Kimbrel – CL – Atlanta Braves
26. Stephen Strasburg – SP – Washington Nationals
25. Jose Reyes – SS – Toronto Blue Jays
24. Yadier Molina – C – St. Louis Cardinals
23. Adam Jones – CF – Baltimore Orioles
22. David Wright – 3B – New York Mets
21. Buster Posey – C – San Francisco Giants
20. Cole Hamels – SP – Philadelphia Phillies
19. Cliff Lee – SP – Philadelphia Phillies
18. CC Sabathia – SP – New York Yankees
17. Andrew McCutchen – CF – Pittsburgh Pirates
16. Evan Longoria – 3B – Tampa Bay Rays
15. Giancarlo Stanton – RF – Miami Marlins
14. Albert Pujols – 1B – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
13. Adrian Beltre – 3B – Texas Rangers
12. David Price – SP – Tampa Bay Rays
11. Prince Fielder – 1B – Detroit Tigers
10. Josh Hamilton – RF – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
9. Joey Votto – 1B – Cincinnati Reds
8. Robinson Cano – 2B – New York Yankees
7. Felix Hernandez – SP – Seattle Mariners
6. Ryan Braun - LF - Milwaukee Brewers
5. Clayton Kershaw – SP – Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Matt Kemp – CF – Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Miguel Cabrera – 3B – Detroit Tigers
2. Justin Verlander – SP – Detroit Tigers
1. Mike Trout – LF – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Why is Ryan Howard here at all? I am just going to go ahead and say this, Ryan Howard is not a good baseball player. 9 years ago he was very good, he had one stellar year and then a few very good years. In the last three seasons he has been average at best and terrible at worst (his last three seasons WAR were -.1.0, 1.7 and 1.4). He strikes out constantly, can't hit lefties, doesn't get on base a lot and his power numbers are trending lower every year, yup that's your 100th best player in baseball.
Snubs : Obviously with a list of 100 guys you won't get too many flat out snubs but I see two glaring omissions here - Aaron Hill and Ben Zobrist. Hill posted a slash of .302/.360/.522 with 26 home runs while barely missing any games, I am guessing the knock against him is that he only had a great 2012 and the list is supposed to factor in three seasons but c'mon, Trout is # 1. The Zorilla remains a great player. He puts up above average offensive stats and continues to be the Shane Battier of baseball who kills it with stellar base running, defense and other hard to quantify stats.
They got #1 right: Mike Trout is the best player in baseball and should have been MVP this year. I am glad MLBN acknowledged this.
What will it take for R.A. Dickey to get some mother lovin' respect? Anybody who read this blog knows that it is largely devoted to trying to get people to respect how good Dickey is. R.A had quietly excellent seasons in 2010 and 2011 after which I felt he was one of the best pitchers in baseball, many people disagreed. The guy then comes out in 2012, wins a Cy Young, has one of the most dominant months of any pitcher ever, essentially invents a new kind of knuckleball, throws multiple one hitters and leads the leauge in IP and K's and comes in second for ERA and Wins. But how does MLBN rank him on their list...50. 50? 50! 50!!!
I mean this is honestly absurd. By any metric over the last three years R.A has been one of the best pitchers in baseball and was top 3 in 2012 and the best they can do is 50? For what it's worth, I think R.A. is the best pitcher in baseball, I can accept arguments that Verlander and King Felix are better but anyone else is not in the conversation. Even more so, in 2013, Dickey is going to be even better than last year.
Dickey rant over. The full list is below, shoot me tweets or comments with your thoughts.
____________________________________________________________________________
100. Ryan Howard – 1B – Philadelphia Phillies
99. Sergio Romo – CL – San Francisco Giants
98. Yu Darvish – SP – Texas Rangers
97. Elvis Andrus – SS – Texas Rangers
96. Chase Utley – 2B – Philadelphia Phillies
95. Adrian Gonzalez – 1B – Los Angeles Dodgers
94. Jacoby Ellsbury – OF – Boston Red Sox
93. Victor Martinez – C/DH – Detroit Tigers
92. Jordan Zimmermann – SP – Washington Nationals
91. Michael Bourn – CF – Cleveland Indians
90. Aroldis Chapman – P – Cincinnati Reds
89. Adam Wainwright – SP – St. Louis Cardinals
88. Jon Lester – SP – Boston Red Sox
87. Mike Moustakas – 3B – Kansas City Royals
86. Brett Lawrie – 3B – Toronto Blue Jays
85. Michael Morse – 1B/LF – Seattle Mariners
84. Allen Craig – 1B – St. Louis Cardinals
83. Torii Hunter – RF – Detroit Tigers
82. Carlos Beltran – RF – St. Louis Cardinals
81. Carlos Ruiz – C – Philadelphia Phillies
80. Brian McCann – C – Atlanta Braves
79. Miguel Montero – C- Arizona Diamondbacks
78. Curtis Granderson – CF – New York Yankees
77. Jim Johnson – CL – Baltimore Orioles
76. Jason Motte – CL – St. Louis Cardinals
75. Ian Desmond – SS – Washington Nationals
74. Chase Headley – 3B – San Diego Padres
73. Adam LaRoche – 1B – Washington Nationals
72. Yovani Gallardo - SP - Milwaukee Brewers
71. Madison Bumgarner – SP – San Francisco Giants
70. Alex Gordon – LF – Kansas City Royals
69. B.J. Upton – CF – Atlanta Braves
68. James Shields – SP – Kansas City Royals
67. David Freese – 3B – St. Louis Cardinals
66. J.J. Hardy – SS – Baltimore Orioles
65. Kyle Lohse – SP – St. Louis Cardinals
64. Wade Miley – SP – Arizona Diamondbacks
63. Johnny Cueto – SP – Cincinnati Reds
62. Jonathan Papelbon – CL – Philadelphia Phillies
61. Mariano Rivera – CL – New York Yankees
60. David Ortiz – DH – Boston Red Sox
59. Jason Heyward – RF – Atlanta Braves
58. Austin Jackson – CF – Detroit Tigers
57. Zack Greinke – SP – Los Angeles Dodgers
56. Chris Sale – SP – Chicago White Sox
55. Billy Butler – DH – Kansas City Royals
54. Bryce Harper – LF – Washington Nationals
53. Derek Jeter – SS – New York Yankees
52. Starlin Castro – SS – Chicago Cubs
51. Troy Tulowitzki – SS – Colorado Rockies
50. R.A. Dickey – SP – Toronto Blue Jays
49. Gio Gonzalez – SP – Washington Nationals
48. Matt Wieters – C – Baltimore Orioles
47. A.J. Pierzynski – C- Texas Rangers
46. Roy Halladay – SP – Philadelphia Phillies
45. Matt Cain – SP – San Francisco Giants
44. Pablo Sandoval – 3B – San Francisco Giants
43. Josh Willingham – LF – Minnesota Twins
42. Yoenis Cespedes – LF – Oakland Athletics
41. Matt Holliday – LF – St. Louis Cardinals
40. Ian Kinsler – 2B – Texas Rangers
39. Edwin Encarnacion – 1B – Toronto Blue Jays
38. Joe Mauer – C – Minnesota Twins
37. Jered Weaver – SP – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
36. Jay Bruce – RF – Cincinnati Reds
35. Justin Upton – LF – Atlanta Braves
34. Dustin Pedroia – 2B – Boston Red Sox
33. Paul Konerko – 1B – Chicago White Sox
32. Aramis Ramirez - 3B Milwaukee Brewers
31. Brandon Phillips – 2B – Cincinnati Reds
30. Carlos Gonzalez – LF – Colorado Rockies
29. Ryan Zimmerman – 3B – Washington Nationals
28. Jose Bautista – RF – Toronto Blue Jays
27. Craig Kimbrel – CL – Atlanta Braves
26. Stephen Strasburg – SP – Washington Nationals
25. Jose Reyes – SS – Toronto Blue Jays
24. Yadier Molina – C – St. Louis Cardinals
23. Adam Jones – CF – Baltimore Orioles
22. David Wright – 3B – New York Mets
21. Buster Posey – C – San Francisco Giants
20. Cole Hamels – SP – Philadelphia Phillies
19. Cliff Lee – SP – Philadelphia Phillies
18. CC Sabathia – SP – New York Yankees
17. Andrew McCutchen – CF – Pittsburgh Pirates
16. Evan Longoria – 3B – Tampa Bay Rays
15. Giancarlo Stanton – RF – Miami Marlins
14. Albert Pujols – 1B – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
13. Adrian Beltre – 3B – Texas Rangers
12. David Price – SP – Tampa Bay Rays
11. Prince Fielder – 1B – Detroit Tigers
10. Josh Hamilton – RF – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
9. Joey Votto – 1B – Cincinnati Reds
8. Robinson Cano – 2B – New York Yankees
7. Felix Hernandez – SP – Seattle Mariners
6. Ryan Braun - LF - Milwaukee Brewers
5. Clayton Kershaw – SP – Los Angeles Dodgers
4. Matt Kemp – CF – Los Angeles Dodgers
3. Miguel Cabrera – 3B – Detroit Tigers
2. Justin Verlander – SP – Detroit Tigers
1. Mike Trout – LF – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Tuesday, February 26, 2013
Over/unders are here!!!
My grand plan for the year is bet on all thirty team over/unders. Most of these will be small bets just to have some skin in the game because a lot of these lines are tough picks but their are a few locks I have my eyes on too that might get big wagers. Throughout the month I will post my picks and the research behind them. Some initial thoughts:
The AL east can't all be good: These are the lines for the AL East:
|
BAL
|
78.5
|
|
BOS
|
84
|
|
NYY
|
88.5
|
|
TAM
|
85.5
|
|
TOR
|
88.5
|
Logic would dictate the division cant all finish this high so some teams have to go under. Last year all but one division in baseball had a team finish with under 70 wins and the remainder (the four team Al West) had one at 75. It would seem that at least one of these teams is a sure under. For my money it's Boston. they didn't make big upgrades this off-season and I see no reason why they should be significantly better than their 69 win season last year.
I respect that the linemakers saw the luck the Orioles had last year and gave them a low line despite being a 90+ win team in 2012, it really shows some sophistication. That being said 78.5 is probably close to the mark for them, I like the under but it won't be much.
They got the Mets right: The line for our Mets is at 75, which seems just about perfect. Again I might bet the under here as we barely limped to 74 wins last year and we had the benefit of a lucky first half and a Cy Young winner. In the same vein I won't be at all shocked if we get to 76 or 77 (but not the 80 PECOTA has for us, that's just ridiculous).
Can you really do worse than 59? The two lowest lines come in at 59.5 for our class of '62 pledge brother Houston Atsros and 63.5 for the Marlins. I am always tempted to take the over when the lines get really low like this. I honestly believe it is difficult to win less than 60. Obviously this happens (the Atsros themselves did it with 55 last year) but I still think it is a somewhat reliable bet. Who know's with the Marlins? Like James Bond in Skyfall, the Marlins skill is resurrection. We have watched the owners of this squad gut the entire team on multiple occasions then come back and be successful a year later, so I just cant count them out.
I will be back as Spring training continues with detailed analysis and picks for each team.
Sunday, February 24, 2013
My Daytona 500 live blog part 2
1:09 - Fifty Cent just tried to kiss Erin Andrews on the lips and is now following her around as they both fail to locate Danica Patrick, this is truly riveting television.
1:10 - Wow the Daytona 500 features a televised, pre race invocation. I have literally never seen that before a sporting event. Now a guy from Zac Brown's band who isn't Zac Brown is signing the national anthem, seems like an odd choice.
1:16 - How come tv technology does not allow me to just watch four programs at once on a split screen? This seems so logical to me. As much as I am enjoying the 500 so far I am missing, golf, spring training baseball and La Liga.
1:18 - Watching these drivers get strapped into their games is pretty surreal. Danica had tubes coming into her helmet for a purpose that was unclear.
1:25 - These guys have giant neck brace car seats and black mesh on the windows. Do they have any peripheral vision, is that safe?
1:31 - OK this race is finally happening. How on earth does this work?! They are just riding along in two straight lines? How does anyone pass anyone else?
1:35 - That problem seems to have solved itself, the lines have broken and leads are changing already. This is kind of exciting.
1:36 - I have no idea what I am even supposed to watching for. Jeff Gordon is in the lead but I don't think that matters. This just feels so dangerous to watch.
1:38 - They keep the race on in a sidebar during commercials? This is he best sports idea ever.
1:43 - Their are commercials promoting NASCAR during NASCAR commercial breaks. IN fact pretty much of all these commercials reference the race in some way.
2:00 - Just saw my first crash. It was terrible, cars seem pretty wrecked and run off the track yet the announcers see pretty blase about it. I guess crashing isn't a big deal?
2:07 - So it appears that crashing does not out you out of the race, it looks like they are gonna try and patch up Cokey Cokeart and send him back out there.
2:08 - This in-car gyro cam really makes you understand how crazy the degrees on these turns on. It looks like they are driving sideways on some of them.
2:38 - The dynamic of how the crash reflects the outcome is incredible. A few drivers who appeared to be top 5 favorites are now out, easy to see how upsets happen in this sport.
2:39 - I am going to watch for a while and try to figure out what's happening. I will make sure to post some further reflections later.
1:10 - Wow the Daytona 500 features a televised, pre race invocation. I have literally never seen that before a sporting event. Now a guy from Zac Brown's band who isn't Zac Brown is signing the national anthem, seems like an odd choice.
1:16 - How come tv technology does not allow me to just watch four programs at once on a split screen? This seems so logical to me. As much as I am enjoying the 500 so far I am missing, golf, spring training baseball and La Liga.
1:18 - Watching these drivers get strapped into their games is pretty surreal. Danica had tubes coming into her helmet for a purpose that was unclear.
1:25 - These guys have giant neck brace car seats and black mesh on the windows. Do they have any peripheral vision, is that safe?
1:31 - OK this race is finally happening. How on earth does this work?! They are just riding along in two straight lines? How does anyone pass anyone else?
1:35 - That problem seems to have solved itself, the lines have broken and leads are changing already. This is kind of exciting.
1:36 - I have no idea what I am even supposed to watching for. Jeff Gordon is in the lead but I don't think that matters. This just feels so dangerous to watch.
1:38 - They keep the race on in a sidebar during commercials? This is he best sports idea ever.
1:43 - Their are commercials promoting NASCAR during NASCAR commercial breaks. IN fact pretty much of all these commercials reference the race in some way.
2:00 - Just saw my first crash. It was terrible, cars seem pretty wrecked and run off the track yet the announcers see pretty blase about it. I guess crashing isn't a big deal?
2:07 - So it appears that crashing does not out you out of the race, it looks like they are gonna try and patch up Cokey Cokeart and send him back out there.
2:08 - This in-car gyro cam really makes you understand how crazy the degrees on these turns on. It looks like they are driving sideways on some of them.
2:38 - The dynamic of how the crash reflects the outcome is incredible. A few drivers who appeared to be top 5 favorites are now out, easy to see how upsets happen in this sport.
2:39 - I am going to watch for a while and try to figure out what's happening. I will make sure to post some further reflections later.
My Daytona 500 live blog.
Sabrmetrics teaches us to question what we traditionally consider to be true and find true value through data. In many ways my discovery of sabrmetrics and the adoption of this core mission into my everyday life has really changed me for the better. If Wins and OPS aren't what I thought they were, what else am I wrong about? As this is a sports blog I can share that how this idea has changed how I watch sports in many ways. Certainly it has led me to learn more about advanced metrics in other sports but it has also led me to simply watch new sports. I grew up thinking soccer was stupid but I never really watched any games, I gave it a chance and now it's one of my favorite sports. I hated hockey and decided to watch it a bunch to see how I really felt...data proves it still sucks.
This brings me today where for the first time in my life, I am watching NASCAR. I have never had even the slightest intrest in watching NASCAR but today I am going to actually give it a chance. I will be watching the Daytona 500 and live blogging as I go. Feel free to tweet or comment at me with any thoughts about the race.
12:12 - I am watching the pre game show and they are making a big deal about the new Generation six cars. Apparently they are debuting all new cars this year. I have a feeling these cars won't look as futuristic as I hope.
12:13 - So what do I know about NASCAR right now? I know probably four of five drivers. I am aware of Danica Patrick and Dale Earnhardt JR. I just learned about Juan Pablo Montoya and I already like him, he seems like some sort of international gentleman driver. I am also aware that drifting exists.
12:15 - I once went to the Daytona 500 track so see what it was all about. It was closed so I went next door to (no joke) the adjoining dog track. It was exactly as depressing as you would imagine. I was their with my buddy who is a veterinarian which I thought would give me a huge edge. He informed he had no ability to judge which dogs were faster, but if given some time he could determine which had worms. Attached to the dog track is an even more depressing poker room full of people trying to turn their last ten bucks into that precious twenty bucks so they could afford a single lap dance at one of Daytona's many fine gentlemans clubs.
12:20 - Watching a short doc about Clint Boyer. He is driving around in a huge camouflage car with bull horns mounted on the front. He is describing how he hates offices and can't read more than a page of a book without getting bored and needing "action". This is both incredibly stereotypical yet quite charming.
12:28 - Seeing some familiar faces here, Erin Andrews is interviewing some driver who is talking like a real world housemate. He keeps saying he likes to ruffle feathers and cause controversy to see who's "real". I love these personalities already.
12:29 - Are their NASCAR stats?
12:32 - Zac Brown is performing, this is can get behind. Although it's one of his island songs which I am not a fan of. Also what's up with Zac's wool hat? Is this a trademark or is his head just cold a lot.
12:44 - Driver introductions on now. They are playing poorly amplified apocalyptic music and the drivers are very casually walking out to minimal applause. The production value is really low in this section, they are walking onto a tiny stage with humorously small fireworks going off periodically They could learn a lesson from pro wrestling here... that sound's like Dave Blainey's music!
12:48 - Tony Stewart walks out boldly brandishing a bottle of coke and showing it directly to the camera then holding it up to the crowd. They should just announce him as Cokey Cokeart driving the Coke car.
12:50 - As Danica came out they announced her as the pole sitter. I know this has something to do with her starting position but the unintentional humor can't be denied.
This brings me today where for the first time in my life, I am watching NASCAR. I have never had even the slightest intrest in watching NASCAR but today I am going to actually give it a chance. I will be watching the Daytona 500 and live blogging as I go. Feel free to tweet or comment at me with any thoughts about the race.
12:12 - I am watching the pre game show and they are making a big deal about the new Generation six cars. Apparently they are debuting all new cars this year. I have a feeling these cars won't look as futuristic as I hope.
12:13 - So what do I know about NASCAR right now? I know probably four of five drivers. I am aware of Danica Patrick and Dale Earnhardt JR. I just learned about Juan Pablo Montoya and I already like him, he seems like some sort of international gentleman driver. I am also aware that drifting exists.
12:15 - I once went to the Daytona 500 track so see what it was all about. It was closed so I went next door to (no joke) the adjoining dog track. It was exactly as depressing as you would imagine. I was their with my buddy who is a veterinarian which I thought would give me a huge edge. He informed he had no ability to judge which dogs were faster, but if given some time he could determine which had worms. Attached to the dog track is an even more depressing poker room full of people trying to turn their last ten bucks into that precious twenty bucks so they could afford a single lap dance at one of Daytona's many fine gentlemans clubs.
12:20 - Watching a short doc about Clint Boyer. He is driving around in a huge camouflage car with bull horns mounted on the front. He is describing how he hates offices and can't read more than a page of a book without getting bored and needing "action". This is both incredibly stereotypical yet quite charming.
12:28 - Seeing some familiar faces here, Erin Andrews is interviewing some driver who is talking like a real world housemate. He keeps saying he likes to ruffle feathers and cause controversy to see who's "real". I love these personalities already.
12:29 - Are their NASCAR stats?
12:32 - Zac Brown is performing, this is can get behind. Although it's one of his island songs which I am not a fan of. Also what's up with Zac's wool hat? Is this a trademark or is his head just cold a lot.
12:44 - Driver introductions on now. They are playing poorly amplified apocalyptic music and the drivers are very casually walking out to minimal applause. The production value is really low in this section, they are walking onto a tiny stage with humorously small fireworks going off periodically They could learn a lesson from pro wrestling here... that sound's like Dave Blainey's music!
12:48 - Tony Stewart walks out boldly brandishing a bottle of coke and showing it directly to the camera then holding it up to the crowd. They should just announce him as Cokey Cokeart driving the Coke car.
12:50 - As Danica came out they announced her as the pole sitter. I know this has something to do with her starting position but the unintentional humor can't be denied.
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
Mets Outfield Projections
Grantland took a break from recapping episodes of Girls and writing oral histories of the tuck rule game to post a pretty solid article about how bad the Mets outfield will be this year. It's a premise I generally agree with but thought it would be fun to take a look at some Bill James predictions of the Mets outfield and see just how bad they might end up. Seriously is there anything better than it being almost Spring and spending all day looking at PECOTA and Bill James projections? There should be a Robert Frost poem about it....
|
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
|
Baxter
|
.276
|
.362
|
.405
|
|
Nieuwenhuis
|
.259
|
.329
|
.414
|
|
Duda
|
.268
|
.356
|
.454
|
As you can see these numbers are all pretty awful but certainly not as bad as Grantland made them out to be. You have two guys with above average OBP and one right at league average, SLG and BA numbers are low and below average but no embarrassingly so. Duda's .454 is not the worse and Baxter's .276 is totally serviceable. I think we could estimate that if these numbers play out and they play similar defense to what they did last year we are looking at each of these guys producing about one win above replacement each.
We shouldn't get the impression the Outfield is dragging down the team, they are just a bunch of average to below average players on a team of so so guys. They are no worse than our Catchers or bullpen and our occasionally inconsistent 1st and 2nd base options.
Wednesday, February 6, 2013
Michael Bourn Projections
|
Projection
|
BA
|
OPS
|
SLG
|
WAR
|
Bill
James
|
.273
|
.344
|
.363
|
no
projection
|
|
Fans
|
.277
|
.348
|
.369
|
4.7
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These numbers are nothing shocking and generally in line with what Bourn has done most years. He is also projected to steal between 40-49 bags differing by system and have a K% of around 20, right in line with his average. Bourn's strikeouts are an interesting question. How much should we care about a guy who strikes a lot if he still gets on base at a rate of better than league average? His career OBP is a respectable .339, he overcomes his prodigious striking out with good hitting and speed. He has a career BABIP of .343 and outperforms league average almost every year. This is far too consistent to be luck, he is just legging out singles most guys can't make. I think at the end of the day his OBP makes his K% less of a worry but it makes me imagine how awesome he could be if cut down the strike outs.
Bourn's other big skill is stealing, which I think we should not factor in. Bourn has pretty reliably gotten caught stealing around 25% of the time which is a pretty bad rate. The value of a steal is much less than the detriment of being caught stealing and having a guy get caught one out of every four times is not something I am all that interested in.
At the end of the day I don't see this signing happening. If it does and it gets done for reasonable years and money Bourn can be a very useful player for the team as they slowly march towards relevance.
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