I was at the Mets game Wednesday night when it finally dawned on me that the Mets simply were not going to make an improbable play off run this year. I know that many of you came to this decision in July but I was holding out for quite a while. When we were only 7 or 8 games back of 1st it seemed possible. Now we are 15 games behind the Nationals and 9.5 out of the wildcard. We can't even reliably win a series from the Marlins who just sold half their team. So what do we do now? We solider on, like brits might do. Dickey has a start against the Astros and we hope for a no no, we cheer for Wright to to keep up an MVP season, we hope for 80 wins, we hope 3rd place, we hope for Jason Bay's retirement and we sleep peacefully at night knowing no matter how bad it gets, the Phillies are worse than us. On to the Braves preview.
The Mets face three M named pitcher's this weekend, I am going to dub them "The Killer M's" pass it on, it's a thing now.
Tonight we face former Pirate Paul Maholm. Maholm is one of those guys that we all casually mention as a decent, slightly above average pitcher but reviewing his numbers reveal a wholly unremarkable hurler. He has a 3.75 ERA with a 4.12 xFIP. His k/9 this year? A paltry 6.29 and that is his career high! 6.29 is the best he has ever done, his bb/9 are not great either with a 2.59. The closer your bb/9 are to your k/9 the worse of a pitcher you are and his are uncomfortably close, like movie seats without a buffer close.
Saturday we face Kris Medlen who from what I can tell has no relation to the Medellín drug cartel, so no need to worry there. Medlen has a very respectable 2.37/3.64 ERA/xFIP but like his teammate Maholm, he has a tough time striking guys out with only 6.26 strikeouts per nine. His success comes in the form of being an extreme groundball pitcher this year with a GB% of 50.5. Experts are split on wether pitches in play being grounders is a skill or just luck and I won't way in on it but in this case, it seems to be luck. His GB% the past three seasons has been 33%, 42%, 41%. 50 is a huge jump from those numbers and is likely just luck, as he pitches more innings his GB% will regress and we will see his ERA go up. Mets can beat him.
Finally on Sunday is Mike Minor. Minor was a much discussed pitching prospect for the Braves who has been absolute garbage this year. He has an ERA of 4.95 and FIP stats that aren't much better. Even better than that? He gives up home runs like it's his job, to the tune of 1.67 home runs per 9 innings pitched. Is it just me or did you just get the feeling the Mets could win this series?
On the offensive side the stars of the team have been Michael Bourn and Jason Heyward. Bourn is batting .289 with a .347 OBP and 29 stolen bags. Heyward is coming in at .269/.344/.477 with 18 dingers. The best part about these two? Absolute strike out machines with K%'s of 21.4 and 25.1 respectively.
The Braves are playing very well but their component stats are those of a team that could fall apart at any minute. Don't count out another Braves collapse this year. As a team the Braves are 64-47. They have scored 517 runs and given up 447 runs.
Friday, August 10, 2012
Thursday, August 9, 2012
Dickey Triple Crown Update
Dickey picked up a complete game win today and I thought it would be a good time to check in on how Dickey is looking for the pitching triple Crown, which we explored before here.
Wins - Dickey is currently the NL wins leader with 15. However there are 3 other pitchers nipping at his heels with 14 a piece: Johnny Cueto, Gio Gonzalez and improbably - A.J. Burnett. This could be a tough category for Dickey as the Mets have not been winning many games at all lately.
ERA- Dickey is currently 4th in ERA with a 2.72 behind Cueto (2.58), Zimmerman (2.45) and league leader Ryan Vogelsong (2.27). Not much of a difference here between first and fourth, R.A. has a real shot at catching up.
Strikeouts- After today Dickey is the punch out leader in the NL with 166, 6 ahead of Stephen Strasburg. This is one category that continues to amaze, even in his bad starts Dickey continued to record a lot of K's, he is a contender as much as anyone here.
Wins - Dickey is currently the NL wins leader with 15. However there are 3 other pitchers nipping at his heels with 14 a piece: Johnny Cueto, Gio Gonzalez and improbably - A.J. Burnett. This could be a tough category for Dickey as the Mets have not been winning many games at all lately.
ERA- Dickey is currently 4th in ERA with a 2.72 behind Cueto (2.58), Zimmerman (2.45) and league leader Ryan Vogelsong (2.27). Not much of a difference here between first and fourth, R.A. has a real shot at catching up.
Strikeouts- After today Dickey is the punch out leader in the NL with 166, 6 ahead of Stephen Strasburg. This is one category that continues to amaze, even in his bad starts Dickey continued to record a lot of K's, he is a contender as much as anyone here.
Wednesday, August 8, 2012
Have you heard about the greatest fantasy baseball league of all time?
I play in the greatest fantasy baseball league in the world. I actually
play in three but one is far more to time consuming and complex than any
other fantasy league I have ever been in. In my league Adrian Gonzalez
remains on the waiver wire, along with Evan Longoria, Dan Haren and Cole
Hamels, all judged not good enough for the competing teams. In my
league I once spent a good amount of time trying to find a guy that
could get me more sacrifice flys. My league has only two players...
welcome to Super Baseball 5000.
Super Baseball 5000, the name of this ridiculous league was hatched by my friend and I at a diner a few months before the 2011 season. As avid fans of arguing about baseball and playing strat-o-matic we thought that it might be fun to concoct a way to play heads up fantasy baseball. After several iterations, we came up with the format that lead to funnest season of fantasy sports I have ever played.
The basic rules are this: Scoring is rotisserie style. Instead of drafting players like in a normal fantasy draft, we draft teams. (I chose the Phillies and the Yankees with the 1st and third picks, my opponent picked the Cardinals and Red Sox) you then staff your team with players from the teams you chose. Preseason you can tinker as much as you want, once the season begins you have the standard 50 move transaction limit. The catch being that you have to have at least one player from each of your teams on your roster. The constant battle to find useful Astros and Orioles being on of the toughest parts of the format.
The other key to the format is lots of categories and several totally unreasonable ones. Their are 30 scoring categories including fielding percentage, grand slams, hitting for the cycle, complete games and triples allowed. Nothing is more maddening than trying to control categories that players have essentially no control over. What do I care if Robbie Cano hit two run home runs if his failure to turn a double play just cost me points in the double plays turned category.
The essence of what makes this league so hard and so time consuming is the choices. In a standard fantasy leagues their is only so much you can do. If you need to improve your team, the choices on the wire are usually not guys who are very good. You either cobble together bad starters or pick guys up on hot streaks and hope they don't flame out too quick. It is infinitely harder to decide who to start as my third outfielder when the choices are Ryan Braun or Josh Hamilton. It's even harder to decide who to pick up to improve my pitching when I have half the leagues aces sitting on the available player list. Not to mention trying to balance having a player from every team (Mark Melancon, I dreamed so often of how great it would be to drop you).
I am proud to say I won the first year of Super Baseball 5000. Despite a not so well thought out plan where I benched Cliff Lee for two weeks and some other ill fated strategies I came out the victor. Super Baseball 5001 is now underway and I am pleased to report I maintain a 9 point league. Updates on this and my other leagues throughout the season.
Super Baseball 5000, the name of this ridiculous league was hatched by my friend and I at a diner a few months before the 2011 season. As avid fans of arguing about baseball and playing strat-o-matic we thought that it might be fun to concoct a way to play heads up fantasy baseball. After several iterations, we came up with the format that lead to funnest season of fantasy sports I have ever played.
The basic rules are this: Scoring is rotisserie style. Instead of drafting players like in a normal fantasy draft, we draft teams. (I chose the Phillies and the Yankees with the 1st and third picks, my opponent picked the Cardinals and Red Sox) you then staff your team with players from the teams you chose. Preseason you can tinker as much as you want, once the season begins you have the standard 50 move transaction limit. The catch being that you have to have at least one player from each of your teams on your roster. The constant battle to find useful Astros and Orioles being on of the toughest parts of the format.
The other key to the format is lots of categories and several totally unreasonable ones. Their are 30 scoring categories including fielding percentage, grand slams, hitting for the cycle, complete games and triples allowed. Nothing is more maddening than trying to control categories that players have essentially no control over. What do I care if Robbie Cano hit two run home runs if his failure to turn a double play just cost me points in the double plays turned category.
The essence of what makes this league so hard and so time consuming is the choices. In a standard fantasy leagues their is only so much you can do. If you need to improve your team, the choices on the wire are usually not guys who are very good. You either cobble together bad starters or pick guys up on hot streaks and hope they don't flame out too quick. It is infinitely harder to decide who to start as my third outfielder when the choices are Ryan Braun or Josh Hamilton. It's even harder to decide who to pick up to improve my pitching when I have half the leagues aces sitting on the available player list. Not to mention trying to balance having a player from every team (Mark Melancon, I dreamed so often of how great it would be to drop you).
I am proud to say I won the first year of Super Baseball 5000. Despite a not so well thought out plan where I benched Cliff Lee for two weeks and some other ill fated strategies I came out the victor. Super Baseball 5001 is now underway and I am pleased to report I maintain a 9 point league. Updates on this and my other leagues throughout the season.
Monday, August 6, 2012
Gettin' to know Scott Patterson
The Mets have signed right handed pitcher Scott Patterson to a minor leauge contract. I know what your thinking, why would the Mets sign veteran character actor Scott Patterson to pitch? Did they think perhaps he could rekindle his early 80's pitching career with the Braves system and make a comeback as a 53 year old? Well rest assured the Mets did not sign this Scott Patterson:
But rather this Scott Patterson:
Scott Patterson has a career 1.93 ERA with 13.50 K/9 and 11.57 bb/9, unbelievable right!? Not so much when I tell you that he has only 4.2 career innings pitched in the minors. Patterson was signed by the Yankees in 2007 after having spent four years playing in the Frontier League an independent baseball league that features teams like the Evansville Otters and Normal CornBelters.
His numbers in the Minors were actually quite good. He has posted a sub 3 ERA multiple times in his career and has a k/9 that stays between and 8 and 10 year to year. He has pitched 28 innings with the Mariners AAA team this year posting a 2.89/4.34 ERA/FIP with 25 k's and 10 walks. He is in his age 33 season so the odds of him having a long career are low but his numbers indicate a player who could be a useful bullpen arm for the Mets this season.
Friday, August 3, 2012
The Mets bullpen improves (incrementally)
Well the Mets bullpen is getting better at about the same speed as continental drift. Allow me to provide you with some positive news:
The Mets pen is no longer the worst in baseball. We now rank 29th in ERA (4.95), suck it Astros! We also rank 28th in xFIP (4.37) and 25th in fWAR (.8) and 29th in WEPA (-5.84).
Josh Edgin is looking good so far, he has only pitched 10 innings but he has a 2.70 ERA/1.87 xFIP with 18 strike outs, this kid has some real potential.
As many people have pointed out Jon Rauch has been pretty solid lately with a 1.23 ERA over 7 innings in the last month. He still isn't getting strike outs which worries me but for now he has seems OK.
Finally Bobby Parnell is not as bad as you think he is. Watching Parnell has generally been painful this season but stats are those of a pretty good reliever. He has a 3.07/3.04 ERA/xFIP. Here is the painful part his save to blown save ratio? 4:5. Ouch.
The bottom line? The Mets bullpen remains one of the worst in baseball but they are getting better, I predict a continued upswing and a dominant August. Here's to high hopes.
The Mets pen is no longer the worst in baseball. We now rank 29th in ERA (4.95), suck it Astros! We also rank 28th in xFIP (4.37) and 25th in fWAR (.8) and 29th in WEPA (-5.84).
Josh Edgin is looking good so far, he has only pitched 10 innings but he has a 2.70 ERA/1.87 xFIP with 18 strike outs, this kid has some real potential.
As many people have pointed out Jon Rauch has been pretty solid lately with a 1.23 ERA over 7 innings in the last month. He still isn't getting strike outs which worries me but for now he has seems OK.
Finally Bobby Parnell is not as bad as you think he is. Watching Parnell has generally been painful this season but stats are those of a pretty good reliever. He has a 3.07/3.04 ERA/xFIP. Here is the painful part his save to blown save ratio? 4:5. Ouch.
The bottom line? The Mets bullpen remains one of the worst in baseball but they are getting better, I predict a continued upswing and a dominant August. Here's to high hopes.
Thursday, August 2, 2012
Bay, Bell, Buck Bingo.
Twitter has been abuzz the last two days over the news that a deal was on the table before the deadline that would have sent Jason Bay to Miami in exchange for Heath Bell and John Buck. Obviously this deal did not happen and we don't know why but I have to assume the Marlins backed out because if it was the Mets they have completely lost their collective baseball minds.
This is literally the best deal I have ever heard of. The fact that anyone would take Jason Bay from us and offer even the slightest value is simply amazing. One thing that I think is clear is that Jason Bay has nothing positive to offer the team any longer. His simple presence in the lineup makes the team inherently worse, to the tune of a WPA of -1.66 so far, good for the bottom ten in the Majors. Jason Bay coming to bat has come to mean a sure out. Just cutting him from the team would make the team better.
Now how about Bell and Buck? Neither of them are very good either. But the big difference is that they can do something. Buck has similar offensive numbers to Bay but at least he is a Catcher and a fairly good one. Having a veteran catcher on the staff to platoon with Thole who hits as well as Bay is more useful than Bay hitting and playing the outfield. How about Bell? Bell is pretty atrocious this year but he is at least worth a gamble. He posted a 5.57 ERA this year, prior to that he has sub 3 ERA in 4 of his last 5 seasons and was good for 40+ saves each year he closed. Now what you rather take a chance on? That an elite level reliever can recover from a bad half season and be a valuable member of a team or that a once elite player who has posted three bad seasons in a row will bounce back. The smart money is Bell. We are spending roughly the same amount of money either way, let's at least have some upside.
This is literally the best deal I have ever heard of. The fact that anyone would take Jason Bay from us and offer even the slightest value is simply amazing. One thing that I think is clear is that Jason Bay has nothing positive to offer the team any longer. His simple presence in the lineup makes the team inherently worse, to the tune of a WPA of -1.66 so far, good for the bottom ten in the Majors. Jason Bay coming to bat has come to mean a sure out. Just cutting him from the team would make the team better.
Now how about Bell and Buck? Neither of them are very good either. But the big difference is that they can do something. Buck has similar offensive numbers to Bay but at least he is a Catcher and a fairly good one. Having a veteran catcher on the staff to platoon with Thole who hits as well as Bay is more useful than Bay hitting and playing the outfield. How about Bell? Bell is pretty atrocious this year but he is at least worth a gamble. He posted a 5.57 ERA this year, prior to that he has sub 3 ERA in 4 of his last 5 seasons and was good for 40+ saves each year he closed. Now what you rather take a chance on? That an elite level reliever can recover from a bad half season and be a valuable member of a team or that a once elite player who has posted three bad seasons in a row will bounce back. The smart money is Bell. We are spending roughly the same amount of money either way, let's at least have some upside.
Wednesday, August 1, 2012
Tejada v. Reyes Check In
In April we looked at how Ruben Tejada was doing in comparison to then slumping Jose Reyes, which you can read here. At the time Tejada was surpassing Reyes in most categories, things have cooled down a bit but Tejada still has some nice advantages.
The first thing to consider when looking at the numbers is that Tejada was injured for a significant amount of the season (played 59 games) while the normally injury prone Reyes has not been hurt at all (played 102 games). Tejada is hitting the ball well and has a clear advantage over NL batting champ Reyes although much of this is due to an extreme slump that started Reyes season that he is still recovering from. Tejada has a slight but inconsequential lead in OBP. The one place where Reyes absolutely own Tejada is speed and it shows in his greater SLG%.
The conclusion here, Reyes is clearly a better player than Tejada but not by much. The simplest measure of comparing two players is WAR, Reyes has exactly 1 win more than Tejada, which is significant but not astronomical. One area where Ruben excels is value. Tejada will make 491k dollars this year whereas Reyes will make 10 million. Tejada is putting up very close numbers to Reyes at a fraction of the cost.
|
Player
|
AVG
|
OBP
|
SLG
|
WAR
|
WPA
|
|
Reyes
|
.277
|
.344
|
.417
|
2.4
|
1.74
|
|
Tejada
|
.311
|
.356
|
.373
|
1.4
|
-0.92
|
The first thing to consider when looking at the numbers is that Tejada was injured for a significant amount of the season (played 59 games) while the normally injury prone Reyes has not been hurt at all (played 102 games). Tejada is hitting the ball well and has a clear advantage over NL batting champ Reyes although much of this is due to an extreme slump that started Reyes season that he is still recovering from. Tejada has a slight but inconsequential lead in OBP. The one place where Reyes absolutely own Tejada is speed and it shows in his greater SLG%.
The conclusion here, Reyes is clearly a better player than Tejada but not by much. The simplest measure of comparing two players is WAR, Reyes has exactly 1 win more than Tejada, which is significant but not astronomical. One area where Ruben excels is value. Tejada will make 491k dollars this year whereas Reyes will make 10 million. Tejada is putting up very close numbers to Reyes at a fraction of the cost.
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