Metsrospectus is now a member of the Baseball Bloggers Alliance. From the BBA website:
"The Baseball Bloggers Alliance was founded in 2009 with the
purpose of encouraging collaboration and communication among bloggers
from across baseball. As a secondary goal, the Alliance also votes on
various awards at different times in the year."
You can check out the website and the other members here .
Tuesday, January 31, 2012
Monday, January 30, 2012
Rick Ankiel numbers
Today we have been seeing some buzz around the Mets acquiring Rick Ankiel. The Mets have been looking for a left handed bench bat and Rick Ankiel is purportedly near the top of the list. This is a tough call for me, I actually really like Rick Ankiel, I think he is a fun player to watch, he appears to be a pretty gritty, hard worker and he has an awesome baseball story. That being said, his numbers make him a hard sell.
Offensively he is at best average and at worst a bit below, he appeared in 122 games in 2011 and hit .239/.296/.363, he also truck out 96 times in just 380 at bats, which mean he strikes out about 25% of the time. The big selling point of Ankiel has been his defense and powerful outfield arm, but unfortunately his defense has not blown me away either.
His career UZR is -3.1 which means he is worse defensively than an average bench player. His numbers last year provide some comfort but still not much. Below are his UZR numbers for each outfield position.
He has decent numbers in both left and center, however not high enough to discount for his bad bat. If a guy is going to play solely based on defense, I would prefer to see higher and more consistent defensive numbers than these.
Offensively he is at best average and at worst a bit below, he appeared in 122 games in 2011 and hit .239/.296/.363, he also truck out 96 times in just 380 at bats, which mean he strikes out about 25% of the time. The big selling point of Ankiel has been his defense and powerful outfield arm, but unfortunately his defense has not blown me away either.
His career UZR is -3.1 which means he is worse defensively than an average bench player. His numbers last year provide some comfort but still not much. Below are his UZR numbers for each outfield position.
|
Position
|
UZR
|
|
RF
|
-1.4
|
|
CF
|
6.9
|
|
LF
|
5.5
|
He has decent numbers in both left and center, however not high enough to discount for his bad bat. If a guy is going to play solely based on defense, I would prefer to see higher and more consistent defensive numbers than these.
Friday, January 27, 2012
Gettin' to know Matt Tuiasosopo
I Make a lot of jokes about the guys the Mets have signed this off-season but Matt Tuiasosopo (I dare you to pronounce that properly) is simply so bad that no joke is funny enough to make this ok. I totally understand depth signings and I know guys like this get moved around all the time but I literally cant find a single reason the Mets have signed this guy.
His stats are truly atrocious, in the three seasons where he played Major League Ball he played in 71 games and in only of those three seasons did he crack the Mendoza line, in 2009 when he hit .227. His career slash line is: .176/.234/.306, that is just so bad. I believe his big selling point is that he can play almost any position, having seen time at 1B,2B,SS,3B and LF. The only problem being, he is bad at all of them, having never posted a positive or even zero UZR at any of these positions.Finally. his career WAR is -1.1, in three years his presence has lost his teams a little over a game. Why are we signing him? He is worse than any decent triple A player we could bring up.
Congratulations Ronny Cedeno, your off the hook for worst off season signing.
His stats are truly atrocious, in the three seasons where he played Major League Ball he played in 71 games and in only of those three seasons did he crack the Mendoza line, in 2009 when he hit .227. His career slash line is: .176/.234/.306, that is just so bad. I believe his big selling point is that he can play almost any position, having seen time at 1B,2B,SS,3B and LF. The only problem being, he is bad at all of them, having never posted a positive or even zero UZR at any of these positions.Finally. his career WAR is -1.1, in three years his presence has lost his teams a little over a game. Why are we signing him? He is worse than any decent triple A player we could bring up.
Congratulations Ronny Cedeno, your off the hook for worst off season signing.
Thursday, January 26, 2012
In which I respond to Carlos Beltran
In an interview yesterday Carlos Beltran told Mets fan that he has gotten over the 2006 NLCS and that we should also forget it and move on. To this I reply...never! Never, Carlos, never ever, ever, ever in the history of ever will I ever move on and forget you striking out in the 2006 NLCS. Don't be a dick and suggest I do. It's not like Mets fans are fuming over it every minute of the day but it is a pretty big moment in Mets history and did precipitate what would go on to be a very bad time for the team that we are currently entering the worst portion of. Forgive me Carlos for not forgetting that we paid you a very large sum of money and that when you were needed most, you did nothing, literally. Look people strike out, I get it, it happens. But you should also be aware that you struck in a phenomenally bad style and in an incredibly important game and appreciate that people are going to be aware of that forever. So no Carlos, I shall not forget, or forgive...ever.
Wednesday, January 25, 2012
What if...the Mets and Phillies switched rotations?
Much like Uatu the Watcher I am a big fan of asking What if? questions, especially when it comes to baseball. Yesterday I wondered what would happen if the Mets and Phillies switched rotations. Perhaps this could happen in a world where Bud Selig ruled the MLB like a feudal warlord and was prone to meting out twisted punishments for his own amusement. I decided to run some numbers and see what would happen.
I did this using WAR. First I calculated the Mets team WAR which was 24.6 for position players and 7.7 for the starting rotation for a toal of 32.3. A replacement level team will win about 47 games so combined this gives the Mets a theoretical record of 79.3. Very close to their actual 2011 record.
Second I looked at the Phillies who had a team WAR of 47.5 (22.7 for positional, 24.8 for pitchers) which came out to a theoretical number of 94.5 wins, again relatively close to the their real record.
Now for the fun, lets switch the SP's.
With Halladay and the gang pitching for the Mets our team WAR becomes 96.4! Even better the Phillies now win only 77.4 games! The teams basically switch places. The Phillies are now in 4th place and the Mets are coasting into the playoffs. It really shows just how much the Phillies success is based so much on their starting rotation and just how hampered the Mets are by having a low end starting 5.
Below is a table with all the numbers:
I did this using WAR. First I calculated the Mets team WAR which was 24.6 for position players and 7.7 for the starting rotation for a toal of 32.3. A replacement level team will win about 47 games so combined this gives the Mets a theoretical record of 79.3. Very close to their actual 2011 record.
Second I looked at the Phillies who had a team WAR of 47.5 (22.7 for positional, 24.8 for pitchers) which came out to a theoretical number of 94.5 wins, again relatively close to the their real record.
Now for the fun, lets switch the SP's.
With Halladay and the gang pitching for the Mets our team WAR becomes 96.4! Even better the Phillies now win only 77.4 games! The teams basically switch places. The Phillies are now in 4th place and the Mets are coasting into the playoffs. It really shows just how much the Phillies success is based so much on their starting rotation and just how hampered the Mets are by having a low end starting 5.
Below is a table with all the numbers:
Position Players WAR
|
Pitchers WAR
|
Team WAR
|
|
Mets
(reality)
|
24.6
|
7.7
|
79.3
|
Mets
(with PHL SP's)
|
24.6
|
24.8
|
96.4
|
Position Players WAR
|
Pitchers WAR
|
Team WAR
|
|
Phillies
(reality)
|
22.7
|
24.8
|
94.5
|
Phillies (with NYM SP's)
|
22.7
|
7.7
|
77.4
|
Tuesday, January 24, 2012
Collins Managerial Stats
Last week my Bill James 2012 Handbook and Ron Shandler Baseball Forecaster arrived in the mail and since then I have pretty much been in sabr overload . Over the next few weeks I will post about any interesting Mets related finds I make while reading. Today I want to look at some managerial tactics stats from Bill James and how Terry Collins does when examined amongst NL averages.
In 2011 Collins used 312 pinch hitters and 18 pinch runners in comparison to other NL managers who used 245 and 27 respectively. One of my favorite new stats from the book is BOMB, this is a stat applied to managers when multiple runs are scored after an intentional walk is issued. In 2011 Collins issued 48 intentional BB of which 35 had a good outcome, 13 a bad outcome and 9 were Bombs.Collins came in below the NL average where the number of intentional BB was 57 with 39 good and 19 not good, he had the exact league average of bombs with 9.
The other thing I found interesting was in Collins use of pitchers he gave pitchers a quick hook 32 times and slow hook on 44 occasions (If a manager pulls the starter after fewer pitches and fewer runs than other managers, that's a quick hook. If he leaves him in after more pitches and more runs, that's a slow hook). He allowed a long outing by a starting pitcher only 23 times (long outing defined as more than 110 pitches). he also used 514 relievers , the NL average being 497.
In 2011 Collins used 312 pinch hitters and 18 pinch runners in comparison to other NL managers who used 245 and 27 respectively. One of my favorite new stats from the book is BOMB, this is a stat applied to managers when multiple runs are scored after an intentional walk is issued. In 2011 Collins issued 48 intentional BB of which 35 had a good outcome, 13 a bad outcome and 9 were Bombs.Collins came in below the NL average where the number of intentional BB was 57 with 39 good and 19 not good, he had the exact league average of bombs with 9.
The other thing I found interesting was in Collins use of pitchers he gave pitchers a quick hook 32 times and slow hook on 44 occasions (If a manager pulls the starter after fewer pitches and fewer runs than other managers, that's a quick hook. If he leaves him in after more pitches and more runs, that's a slow hook). He allowed a long outing by a starting pitcher only 23 times (long outing defined as more than 110 pitches). he also used 514 relievers , the NL average being 497.
Monday, January 23, 2012
Frank Francisco numbers
Last Friday Brian Kenney answered a question I submitted on Clubhouse Confidential regarding the best metrics to judge closers. He responded that he looks at K% BB% and a comparison of saves to blown saves. I decided to look at how the Mets projected new closer, Frank Francisco, looks within this lens. Below are his 2011 numbers with IP added for context.
|
Francisco
|
IP
|
K%
|
BB%
|
SV
|
BS
|
|
2011
|
50.2
|
24.3%
|
8.30%
|
17
|
4
|
As you can see his numbers are actually very good. Saves alone are low but are far too reliant on non pitching factors to make a decent judgement about pitching ability. His save to blown save ratio is fine, four is a pretty average for a closer if not on the low end. His K% is great and at the high end of the spectrum for closers with only really elite level guys much higher.. He is in the same range as Mariano Rivera, Brian Wilson and Ryan Madson. Same goes for his BB% which was in the good to very good range, similar to guys like Heath Bell, John Axford and K-Rod.
Doing this analysis actually made me feel better about having him on the team (but still mad at his salary) however while 2011 numbers all look great but the real concern with Frank Frank is his tendency to implode and occasionally throw chairs at fans. Through injuries and some poor play he has never been able to gain and keep a closers job. I do think their is a chance he could shine on a team like the Mets if he stays healthy. Often times Francisco has lost his closers job after only a few bad outings. On a team like the Mets with not many options he may get a lot more chances to pitch through his problems and put together good numbers over the course of a season. He certainly has the raw skills to do it.
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