Tuesday, February 19, 2013

Mets Outfield Projections

Grantland took a break from recapping episodes of Girls and writing oral histories of the tuck rule game to post a pretty solid article about how bad the Mets outfield will be this year. It's a premise I generally agree with but thought it would be fun to take a look at some Bill James predictions of the Mets outfield and see just how bad they might end up. Seriously is there anything better than it being almost Spring and spending all day looking at PECOTA and Bill James projections? There should be a Robert Frost poem about it....


As you can see these numbers are all pretty awful but certainly not as bad as Grantland made them out to be. You have two guys with above average OBP and one right at league average, SLG  and BA numbers are low and below average but no embarrassingly so. Duda's .454 is not the worse and Baxter's .276 is totally serviceable. I think we could estimate that if these numbers play out and they play similar defense to what they did last year we are looking at each of these guys producing about one win above replacement each.

We shouldn't get the impression the Outfield is dragging down the team, they are just a bunch of average to below average players on a team of so so guys. They are no worse than  our Catchers or bullpen and our occasionally inconsistent 1st and 2nd base options.

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