I decided to take a look at the knuckle ball mafia that helped Dickey get where he is, Charlie Hough, Phil Niekro and Tim Wakefield. Three knucklers who all pitched well into their 40's and represent a good mix of eras. First up, let's look at Niekro:
Niekro age
|
WAR
|
ERA
|
IP
|
k/9
|
bb/9
|
38
|
6.4
|
4.03
|
330.1
|
7.14
|
4.47
|
39
|
9.4
|
3.88
|
334.1
|
6.88
|
2.75
|
40
|
4
|
3.39
|
342
|
5.47
|
2.97
|
41
|
3.5
|
3.63
|
275
|
5.76
|
2.78
|
42
|
2.1
|
3.1
|
139.1
|
4
|
3.62
|
Hough age
|
WAR
|
ERA
|
IP
|
k/9
|
bb/9
|
38
|
2.3
|
3.79
|
285.1
|
7.03
|
3.91
|
39
|
4.2
|
3.79
|
252
|
6.21
|
4.5
|
40
|
3.3
|
3.32
|
182
|
4.65
|
4.7
|
41
|
-0.3
|
4.35
|
218
|
4.69
|
4.9
|
42
|
0.4
|
4.07
|
199
|
4.83
|
4.24
|
Charlie also continued to play well into his 40's. He had a poor age 41 season where he battled some injuries but came back and was positive again at age 42. For those wondering if that was the beginning of the end for him should take note of his age 45 season in 1993 when he put up a 2.4 WAR for the Marlins. One thing you will notice with Charlie is his relatively poor strike out and walk numbers. In his age 41 season he has a precision index less than .5 and even in his best years he had a lot of trouble. This is typical of most knuckleballers as the ball tends to move all over the place and produce more outs from weakly hit balls than by K's. Dickey is all by account the first knuckleball pitcher to overcome this. He has never issues many walks, frequently being a league leader in strikes thrown. In addition he led the league this year on strikeouts with 230.
Finally let's take a look at Tim Wakefield:
|
WAR
|
ERA
|
IP
|
k/9
|
bb/9
|
38
|
2.7
|
4.15
|
225.1
|
6.03
|
2.72
|
39
|
1.7
|
4.63
|
140
|
5.79
|
3.28
|
40
|
2.7
|
4.76
|
189
|
5.24
|
3.05
|
41
|
2
|
4.13
|
181
|
5.82
|
2.98
|
42
|
2
|
4.58
|
129.2
|
5
|
3.47
|
Wakefield was not as good but the important note here is that he was consistent. From ages 38-42 he never put up an ERA under four but his career ERA was 4.41, a number he beat twice in those years. While Wakefield was never great he remained about as good as he always was. He also continued to be an innings eater, posting pretty good numbers of IP throughout this five year stretch. I always heard from Pelfrey apologists how important his ability to pitch so many innings is, why don't we value this as highly for the Dickster?
These numbers reliably show one thing. Knuckleball pitchers do not show any significant drop off in their later years, specifically their age 38-42 seasons, which Dickey is entering now. Each of these men continued to excel and in some cases get better as they aged. R.A. Dickey is not a fluke. He has proven over three years he is an elite pitcher and all the evidence shows his best years may be yet to come.
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