Thursday, January 19, 2012

Dan Dekker and Harvey numbers.

Top Mets prospects Matt Harvey and outfielder Matt den Dekker were invited to Spring Training camp, leading to the inevitable discussion that one or both of them might be 2012 ready. Let's take a look at their numbers and see just how excited we should get. Analyzing both of these guys is great because in both cases using advanced metrics helped explain aberrant standard metrics.

First let's look at Harvey:

Harvey
IP
ERA
FIP
k/9
bb/9
h/9
A
76
2.37
2.66
10.98
2.84
7.9
AA
59
4.53
3.23
9.65
3.47
8.7

Matt actually has some pretty good numbers and is a definite candidate for a late 2012 call up. We can't get too excited yet because he hasn't seen any time in AAA which will be a major indicator of his skill, but his single and double A numbers look great. He totally outclassed the competition with the St. Lucie Mets striking out more than a batter per inning and maintaining a low ERA and FIP. At both levels he gives up a decent amount of hits which is something to be watched. Between A and AA he went up almost a full hit per 9 innings, if that trend continues it will be a concern. People might look to his AA ERA as an indication of worry but his FIP shows he pitched a lot better than his ERA indicates and is probably more the fault of his teammates than his pitching ability. Overall I believe that with a good season in AAA Matt Harvey could be a late 2012 call up, especially if he brings back the mustache.

On to Matt dan Dekker whose name is simply awesome.

Den Dekker
G
AVG
BABIP
OBP
SLG
HR
A
67
.296
.369
.362
.494
6
AA
72
.235
.305
.312
.426
11

Matt number 2 also has some great numbers but might be a little farther off than Matt number 1. He put up a very good BA in single A ball but his BABIP shows he had an incredible amount of luck in that effort. When his BABIP fell back down to the baseline his BA also fell back down about 70 points. However he knocked 17 home runs and also stole 24 bases so he is showing great evidence of both speed and power. My assumption is that he has a lot of good raw tools and needs to work on refining his baseball skills before making an MLB debut, but when it happens, he could be very dangerous.

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