Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Mets bullpen stats

I originally titled this post "The Mets bullpen could be worse" but after doing the research I didn't feel as comfortable saying that. They definitely could be worse, they could be the Cubs. Let's take a look at some pitching stats and where they fall among the other teams:

WAR
0.2
25th worst
ERA
5.84
30th-worst in baseball
xFIP
4.28
28th worst
Saves
17
tied for 9th most
Blown Saves
13
1st-most in baseball
bb/9
4.06
8th best
k/9
8.32
15th
k/bb
2.05
5th best

As you can see this is not the most encouraging data. I think ERA and xFIP are unfair stats to use for relievers so I won't fault them much here but it is telling that they are near the bottom of the league in both categories. I think ratio of saves to blown saves and k/bb ratio are probably the two most important stats. Our SV:BS ratio is pretty poor. While we have recorded a decent amount of saves we have blown more than any other team. Any time that a team comes into a game in a save situation they should win that game statistically. That is 13 games that we should have in the W column which for the record would make us 46-16 and the best team in baseball by a mile. Now blowing no saves is clearly unrealistic, every team blows saves. The average number of blown saves for a team right now is 7.5. If the Mets were had just the average we would be 39-23, good for first place in the division and one of the best teams in baseball.

On a more hopeful note we have one of the better k/bb ratios in baseball with a 2.05. Our k/9 sits right in the middle and our bb/9 is in the top 10. This is a good sign. Our components stats are showing we are better than our outcome stats would have us believe. If the team can keep striking guys out and not walking batters we will start being more effective. We have already trimmed some of the fat by dropping Manny Acosta who was sporting an ERA over 10 and a war nearing negative 1 by the time he left. The take away here is that the Mets bullpen has been atrocious so far but brighter days are likely ahead.

1 comment:

  1. I think that the blown save analysis you have there is incorrect. You can have more than 1 blown save in one game (ala Mets vs Washington last tues when the mets were "credited" with 3 blown saves) because middle relievers can get blown saves.
    In my opinion, a better analysis would be to look at holds, saves, and split blown saves into blown saves (9th inning or later, or if a closer is brought in the 8th) and "blown holds" (8th inning or earlier).

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