Friday night we take on Andy Pettitte, who despite having been born in the Harding administration is pitching really well. His ERA currently sits at 2.77 and he is striking out about 8.5 batters per game. Frankly Andy Pettitte is one of those guys I think a lot of us wrote off but probably should not have. He has really never had a bad season so their is no reason to believe he can't keep pitching well until we see the evidence he can't.
Next up is Ivan Nova. Thankfully this should be an easier game for us. We have Young going who has been solid but he is still just getting started so I am not counting on him just yet. Nova has an ERA/xFIP of 4.32/3.88 with a k/9 of 7.70 and a bb/9 of 2.43. His numbers are pretty average to just above average all around. His career numbers and projections all show a guy who has an ERA/xFIP of around 4 and closer to 6 k/9 so I would estimate he will regress a little bit but ultimately be about the skill level he is at now.
Finally on Sunday we face Carsten Charles Sabathia who is having as good a year as usual with an ERA/xFIP of 3.55/3.18. and a k/9 over 9. He has been giving up a few home runs this year, 10 so far, which puts him on pace to top his previous season high of 20 (04,10). What can we say about CC? He is awesome, he is one of those players that does not look dominant when you watch but when you see his stats he is absolutely fantastic. He tends to give up early inning hits and runs but then settles in and pitches 8 or 9 innings of great baseball. The only thing we can hope for here is to score a few of those early runs and let Dickey blank the yanks as we know he can.
On the offensive side the star of the team is Robbie Cano, who is one of my favorite non-Mets but not this weekend. He is currently hitting .299/.365/.545 with 14 home runs. Robbie was off to a slow start but has since picked it up and is playing his regular, dominant game. I am sad to see that Jeter is still playing well and batting over .300. In my old age the intense hatred has cooled a bit that I once had for the Yankees but I will always hate Derek Jeter, seriosuly I hope Niese beams him tonight just to show him we mean business, Dock Ellis style.
As a team the Yankees are 41-27, they have scored runs 323 and given up 269 runs.
Mets will win series by a combined score of 45-2
ReplyDeleteAs demonstrated by the Orioles series, Once again the key for the mets will be to score first as the mets are 10-2 this month when they score first and 0-7 this month when they don't.
ReplyDeleteThat's why i'm confident the Mets will win the final game because CC does give up lots of runs early, so if the mets score first they should win. Plus, all the yankees try to do is hit home runs, which explains their bad numbers with runners in scoring position, and which is a terrible thing to do when facing a knuckleballer.
I'm not sure what to think about Pettite, i don't think he can keep up this pace but the mets have struggled against lefties this year.
Nova is also one of those pitchers who win despite whatever good or bad innings he puts together; the yankees always find a way to score a little more than the opposition in his starts to get him the many W's he doesn't really deserve.
The series could go either way but i have to give the edge to the Mets because i consider Sunday a virtual lock as a victory.
I am struggling with how much of a lock Sunday will be. I am considering betting it big and I can't see anyway Dickey doesn't dominate but I still always fear the Yankees deep down.
ReplyDeleteMaybe thats just the overconfident Met fan in me talking, but here are the factors that make me think the game is a lock. (Perhaps a more pessemistic fan can point out to me the cons going against the mets).
DeletePros:
Unfamiliarity with dickey
Yankees swing for the fences
Yankees bad #'s with runner in scoring position
Excellent #'s in interleage play so far
5-0, 1.20 ERA during the night games
6-0, 1.20 ERA at home
It is on national televsion(yes i do think that will motivate him)
Dickey is RED HOT
Cons:
Dickey is due for a bad start?
Yankees could explode at any time
All the attention/scrutiny could get to him.
The key i think for the yankees will be to get a hit, even a blooper, early (1st or 2nd inning) off of dickey to get their confidence up and make them think they can actually get more than 1 hit off of this guy.
Like i said, maybe you can help me with more cons.