Thursday, August 9, 2012

Dickey Triple Crown Update

Dickey picked up a complete game win today and I thought it would be a good time to check in on how Dickey is looking for the pitching triple Crown, which we explored before here.

Wins - Dickey is currently the NL wins leader with 15. However there are 3 other pitchers nipping at his heels with 14 a piece: Johnny Cueto, Gio Gonzalez and improbably - A.J. Burnett. This could be a tough category for Dickey as the Mets have not been winning many games at all lately.

ERA- Dickey is currently 4th in ERA with a 2.72 behind Cueto (2.58), Zimmerman (2.45) and league leader Ryan Vogelsong (2.27). Not much of a difference here between first and fourth, R.A. has a real shot at catching up.

Strikeouts- After today Dickey is the punch out leader in the NL with 166, 6 ahead of Stephen Strasburg. This is one category that continues to amaze, even in his bad starts Dickey continued to record a lot of K's, he is a contender as much as anyone here.


  1. When Dickey was going on his great run. i thought he had a great shot at the triple crown. Now it's probably a longshot for him to win it. This is how i think it will turn out.

    Wins-The hardest stat for any pitcher to control. I think Dickey has a good shot at leading, or co-leading, in this category because of his ability to go deep into games. That's why he's my pick as the favorite to win this category even though the Mets haven't been winning that many games right now.
    Here's what i think about his competitors:
    Burnett-Plays for a weak hitting team and personally i think he'll tail off
    Cueto-Probably the person that Dickey will have to beat. He's got a good lineup behind him, plus he doesn't give up many runs. Oh yea, that bullpen of his is pretty damn dominant too.
    Gonzalez-A good pitcher on a winning team. He'll probably stay in the hunt throughout the rest of the season. A darkhorse though in my opinion.
    Lynn-Probably the best bet to tail off because rookie pitcher in 1st year starting.
    Of the 12-game winngers, Lohse is my pick.

    ERA-Probably the toughest one for Dickey to win. I'm guessing the winner will need around a 2.5ish ERA to win, which means Dickey will need to go on another 10-15 IP scoreless streak to have a chance(or other pitchers blow up).
    Vogelsong-Another great year with a good ERA, can't count him out.
    Zimmerman-Doesn't get pushed(usually only in for 6 innings) so doesn't get an opportunity to get challenged. If he gets handled with kid gloves, he'll have a shot as well.
    Cueto-My pick to win it.
    Of the rest of the field, i'd say Kershaw has the best shot based on track record.

    Strikeouts-Ah, I never thought i'd say this, but this is the category he is most likely to win. He really started striking people out since May 17. Before: 6.5K/9 After: 10.2K/9
    Strausburg:He'd easily win it if he weren't on an innings limit. He has an 11.3K/9, which is just filthy.
    Gonzalez:Trails by 12, and pitches on average 1 inning less inning than Dickey per start.
    Everyone else struggles to have a K rate of 9, so they're not really contenders, so Dickey should be the easy winner here.

    So to recap, i think it'll be a close race to the end, but he'll co-lead for Wins, Finish top 5 for ERA, and lead strikeouts.

  2. I totally agree with that analaysis Derway, it will take one of three things for Dickey to lead ERA:

    a) big time blow ups on the part of the leaders
    b) Mets move to a short rest Dickey rest rotation and he pitches well throughout it
    c) He has another run like June where he throws multiple game scoreless innings.

    Thanks for the analysis!

    1. Other Categories he might win.

      IP:Clayton Richard trails him by 2 outs, but he has had 1 extra start. Out of the top 10, only Cole Hamels average at least 7IP per start, but he's 8 innings behind Dickey right now. Terry has said he's willing to give Dickey extra starts, so this should be a category he wins.

      WHIP: He leads Cain and Bumgarner by .03 and Kershaw by .04 As long as Dickey doesn't struggle the rest of the season, he will probably win this.

      CG: Dickey has 4. No other pitcher has more than 2.

      Shutout:Tied with 3 other pitchers with 2.

      Pitches/Inning: Dickey at 14.34. Second closet at 14.48. This is why Dickey can go deep.

      With all these categories he is leading, he's the clear cut Cy Young favorite right now.

      PS. Those who think that Kimbrel or any reliever deserves any consideration... that's a joke. No modern reliever ever deserves to be in the top 10 in voting let alone be the winner. A SP who goes 200 IP and puts up a 3.00 ERA is MUCH more valuable than a closer who pitches 50 IP with 1.00 ERA.