Mets SP at the break

Below are some numbers for the Mets starters in the first half of the season. I only wrote about 4 guys because they have been the only consistent ones, now with the news of Gee's medical problems I am not sure what is in the future for the rotation. Let's take a look at the beauty that was the 1st half of 2012.

Name	W	L	IP	K/9	BB/9	ERA	xFIP	WAR
R.A. Dickey	12	1	120	9.23	1.95	2.40	2.86	3.2
Dillon Gee	6	7	109	7.96	2.38	4.10	3.50	1.6
Johan Santana	6	5	102	8.68	2.89	3.24	3.86	1.6
Jonathon Niese	7	4	103	7.9	2.78	3.73	3.54	0.9

These numbers are the main reason the Mets have been so successful this year. I would be surprised if someone out there was a bigger R.A. Dickey booster than myself and I can honestly say these numbers exceeded my wildest expectations.He somehow managed to lower his already fantastic ERA and added the two things he never really did before, record wins and get more strike outs. Johan proved that surgery didn't stop him from being Johan and Gee and Niese have been exactly what we need, above average middle of the rotation guys.

The Mets starters currently have the 3rd lowest ERA in baseball, far ahead of teams with marquee rotations that were predicted to dominate baseball like the Rays and Angels. They have also have the third lowest xFIP, a much more accurate metric of pitching success behind only the Nationals and Sillies who feature 5 of the best pitchers in the game on their rosters.They are 6th in strike outs per nine innings (4th in the NL), 4th in innings pitched which means less work for our far less successful bullpen, 3rd in bb/9 and 3rd lowest in WHIP.

The question of course is can they can keep it up? I believe they can. No one here is playing unrealistically above their level, expect possibly for Dickey. I expect all of R.A.'s numbers to stay the same and they all follow a predictable trend but we got to a point in June when anything less than a one hitter was basically a failure. I think Dickey will finish the season was a sub 3 ERA and over 20 wins but he will probably give up some hits and runs along the way.

Johan is pitching like he always has and until I see his numbers spike I will continue to believe he is the same guy. Gee is a bit young to predict sustainability since he doesn't have the body of work to draw from but he is showing a reasonable rate of improvement over his 2011 numbers. His xFIP has dropped about a half a run and his k/9 has gone up one, pretty standard for an improving pitcher. Niese has a career 3.62 x FIP and a 2012 xfip of 3.54, last year's k/9 was 7.89 now it is 7.90. He is on track for to match his 2011 fWAR of 2.7. Jon Niese is Mr. Sustainable.

All in all this rotation gives me hope. Chris Young has done a good job in the 5th spot but he is always an injury risk. With Gee out for at least 2 weeks we have some tough choices to make. Bring up Harvey or suffer through more Schwinden, Batista etc.My best case scenario? A quick recovery for Gee so we don't even have to answer this question.