Monday, July 16, 2012

The Matt Harvey Problem

The Mets have a big problem. Quite a few in fact. Last weekend was just downright dreadful. It was like watching everything that was bad about the Mets over the last few years at once, Wright striking out a lot, ineffective starting pitchers and a bullpen that is all but assured to cost you the game. Today on Metsblog Matt Cerrone talks about how three games shouldn't make a big difference in how we feel about the teams prospects but somehow it still does, he is right. It's only three games but it just made me feel awful.

However the problem I want to talk about today is Matt Harvey. Since Gee got injured we have been talking about Matt Harvey replacing him and have been given a series of confusing messages from the Mets ranging from he might start this week to he definitely won't be coming up at all. Now we are all told that a range of Mets execs are traveling to Buffalo to watch him pitch and Terry Collins says it's basically "an audition".

This kind of thinking just drives me nuts. Bring him up, don't bring him up but don't do it based on the strength of tonight's start. Tonight's start will not tell us anything we don't already know. We have several seasons of college and minor league data to look at, video to watch, numbers to crunch, comparisons to be made, experts to consult but instead we are just going to watch him pitch once and go from there? He could throw a no hitter tonight or he could give up 10 runs, neither would be particularly indicative of whether or not he can pitch at the MLB level. The Mets front office can't figure out what to do so they are just going to leave it up what is basically chance, they are going to look for a sign. If Matt Harvey was meant to get called up, he will pitch well tonight. Thinking like this just makes me mad.

As for my opinion? I would bring him up. I think the numbers bear it out. Below is a table with the AAA numbers prior to call up of the the Mets two other young pitchers as well as the two best rookie SP this year: Lance Lynn and Wade Miley.

 Player
IP
ERA
FIP
WHIP
k/9
bb/9
Harvey
98.1
3.39
3.45
1.31
9.34
2.84
Niese
94.1
3.82
3.38
1.28
7.82
2.48
Gee
161.1
4.96
4.01
1.33
9.2
2.29
Miley
54.1
3.64
2.98
1.27
9.28
2.65
Lynn
75
3.84
2.92
1.39
7.68
3

As you can see their is no great difference between Harvey and any of these guys. One might argue that Gee was fairly unqualified to get called up when he did. He has remarkably similar numbers to Niese (expect way more K's)and is either on pace or better in most categories than Lynn or Miley both of whom are having awesome years. I say he's ready, I just hope whatever the Mets decide, they decide using logic and rationality.

1 comment:

  1. There are 2 major factors in a decision like this.
    The first is what you are using-stats. Obviously a pitcher who is doing well in AAA has a better chance than someone who isn't doing well(although it is possible for someone who had been sucking in the minors to go on a great run in mlb and vice versa).

    The second is to listen to scouts. The downsides to listen to these people are huge because most likely they are wrong more often than they are right, but they are still probably the most qualified people to make judgements on players in the minor leagues.

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