Phixing the Phillies

For the annonymous masses out there looking for mets talk, I'm sorry to say the subject is changing today. My name is Mark, I'm a guest blogger, and an avid, die-hard, unapologetic Phillies fan. Now, before you send the calvary to come after me, let me say this: I am a Mets sympathizer.  Far from the usual philly met hater, I grew up with a father who was a Mets fan from day 1, and while he could not convert me, I don't mind seeing the Mets do well (when it doesn't hurt the phillies).

 

Alas, today's topic will be the reigning 5 time division champion (gotta say it while I can) Phillies. I made my first trip ever to citi field friday night, picked just about the worst possible game to go to, and left feeling that the season might be over. IT was one of those losses. And while Clifton's first win yesterday helped lift my spirits, I can't help but think that even a surge this year may be too little too late, and its time to re-tool the team. So, since I assume that among you Mets fans there are a few intelligent baseball fans (a brash assumption), I'd like to talk about how the phillies will be fixed.

Now, lets make one thing clear. We aren't going back to the 90s. The phillies are not going to go into another decade long slumber. I hate to break it to you, but those days are over. This ownership is committed to spending, committed to filling that park every night.  Maybe that will change, but until it doesn't,  you will see 2-3 years of re-tooling, but not a decade long slumber. This is similar to the metropolitans. If we assume this is the year the franchise turns the corner again, the team really only had bad years in 2009, 2010, and 2011. Thats 3. It was perpetuated a bit because in those three years, not only did they have to liquidate bad contracts, but they couldn't spend because their owner had been caught in a ponzi scheme ripping innocent people out of billions of dollars (or something like that).  But still, as the Mets and Phillies have learned, its not just about spending, its about spending wisely. Heres how the Phillies will do it:

 

(One Last Disclaimer: If in the next two weeks the phillies go on a tear, none of this applies, we're going for it one more year, and we're coming for you).

 

Catcher: On July 5th, 2012 Carlos Ruiz is the best catcher on the planet. Period. Maybe that wasn't true a couple weeks months or years ago, maybe it won't be true in the upcoming weeks months or years, but today it is. He is older then you'd think, because he came up late. However, he is a great defensive catcher, calls the game well, and while he may never live up to the career year he is having this year, he can still contribute with the bat. You have to extend him. He needs a 3-4 year extension, he will contribute mightily during that time and get the position ready for sebastian valle, Gabriel Lino, or another chooch contract. The Catcher position is a no brainer.

 

First Base: Another obvious move, although some will complain about it. Ryan Howard can't/won't/shouldn't be moved (pick whichever reason you like). Yes, he is starting a monsterous deal this year at an age where sluggers start to struggle coming off a catostrophic injury. Yes his numbers have been slipping. Yes, he will probably never live up to this contract. However, Ryan's contributions are in full effect this year. He always drives in runs, he always hits well with RISP, and he brings much needed power. He will continue to contribute, assuming he stays healthy, even if his numbers prove he is overpaid.  Phillies just need to make sure he does not come back too fast, and make sure he is healthy to start giving us 35 hr/110 RBIs a year for the remainder of that deal.

 

Second Base: This may be the toughest position to write about, purely from an emotional perspective. Chase Utley went from sure fire hall of famer, to a guy who had a great but short career and will always be considered someone who never reached immortality because of injuries. Maybe his injury has turned around and he will be able to play out the rest of his career at 2nd. Maybe it hasn't. If so, then this will be his next to last year in Philadelphia. I can't see them ever trading him, and he only has one more year left, so I have a feeling we will be in for another spring of waiting for Utley to return. After the last year of his contract, he will have to go to the American League. Its painful. He is an all time great 2nd baseman, not just for the phillies, but you can't pay someone big money to play for 4 months. Galvis is a nice fill in, but it remains to be seen whether or not he'll ever be more then a utility guy. He can start everyday and be one of the best defensive 2nd basemen in baseball, but that just means offense will have to come from other areas of the field.

 

Third Base: Polanco is just riding out the last year of his deal, and he will need to be replaced. They need power at 3rd base. This either has to come from free agency, or a trade, as there is nobody in the farm. Fairly simple, they just need to find the right guy.

 

Short Stop: We are locked into Jimmy Rollins for the remainder of his contract. He should be find 10k everytime his OBP drops under .300. Jimmy will bring great glove, production on the basepaths, and head scratching at bats. He is what he is, but still a contributor.

 

Outfield: I'm going to do the outfield collectively because this is where we will see the most change. Right now, Phillies top 4 are Mayberry/Pierre/Victorino/Pence. Victorino is gone. They can't afford him, he isn't worth the money anymore, and he has soured his stay here. Once the sparkplug of the team who always came up with clutch hits and great defensive plays, he is now more an annoyance who has head scratching at bats. Regardless, they simply can't afford him. THey need to trade him, ideally for major league ready bullpen arms or soon to be major league ready prospects. For this year, the outfield of Pence, Mayberry, Pierre, can do just fine. Pierre has been a huge pick up for the Phillies, and who knows where they would be without him but who also knows where he will be next year. I'd love to resign him for the right price and the right role. Mayberry has been somewhat of a dissapointment, he is inconsistent and really has only hit well at  the bottom of the lineup. It seems like he might be a 4th outfielder, and nothing more. Pence is the big question. He is going to go to salary arbitration and get around $15 million. Is he worth it? He can never be "the guy", but he can do well protecting howard in the 5 hole. If the Phillies think they can fit him in their budget, I would love to keep him, but knowing that he can be an all star quality player, but not a franchise player. For this reason, if the price is wrong, I wouldn't mind shipping Pence or finding a cheaper alternative for the corner outfielders. Since the infield is largely set, how the phillies re-tool their outfield will go a long way to determining their future.

 

Starting Pitching: How quickly things turn. Last year we had one of the best staffs of all time. Last month, the starting pitching ERA was over 5. Halladay will be fine, I have full faith he will come back from the injury and be OK. Likewise, hopefully Lee's performance yesterday turned the corner for him. He was pitching well in April and May, but then the pressure of having no wins and being in last place really started to get to him in June. Physically, he is fine, in great shape, and will be a great pitcher. Of course, everyone wants to talk about Cole Hamels. Its much talked about, but its a simple situation. If the Phillies can't resign him, they need to trade him. Period. It breaks my heart to see the man who handed me a world series go to another team, but he is simply too valuable of an asset to see walk. Mets made this mistake with reyes. They knew they were only going to offer 85 million, and they let him walk anyway. Phillies can't do the same. They need to get a blue chip prospect at 3rd base or corner outfield, someone who can be ready quickly. They also should get ATLEAST another major league pitching prospect, someone who can project to be a 3rd starter. They need to pull off this deal, and doing it properly will go a long way into helping the Phillies turn around.  Vance is a good young player who should get the extentsion. Blanton needs to be cut, and kendrick isn't worth the pixels that this blog is made up on.

 

Bullpen: Our bullpen situation is dire. We have an All Star (Pap), a glorified lefty specialist (Bastardo), and a bunch of players who don't belong in the majors (although its early to tell, Valdes may belong). This needs to be completely retooled. The Phillies thought they could do this from their farm system, but many of their prospects who did great in Triple AAA have failed in the majors. Schwimmer and Savery have been busts. Rosenberg has struggled but its early to tell. Diekman has had some ups and a lot of downs.  If its not going to come from lehigh valley, this has to be fixed via trades or free agency. Mets fans know, you can lose a lot of games from your pen. Luckily, you can also build a bulpen cheaply, if you are smart and don't blow too much money on an over rated closer and chad qualls.

 

All things considered, you are looking at most a two year project, although a lot of this will be done by opening day.  This may be the year to stomp on the phillies, and I know the success with young players has mets fans seeing an arc towards prominence, but I say enjoy it now. The Phillies will be back, and it will be a lot sooner then most of you probably anticipate.

 

Best part is, once the Phillies go on a tear, none of this will be necessary.