Monday, July 2, 2012

Monday Mets Prospectus: All star snubs, Duda flubs and a hypothetical trade to anger the masses.

I was fully prepared today to make a full statistical analysis of how bad the All Star Game selection was but ultimately that would be futile. The ASG players are selected by fans, players and the team coaches, none of whom probably factor stats heavily into their selection. No statistical argument can be made for Sandoval over Wright, Johan is as good or better than several of the selected pitchers and to be honest, they might not have even been the biggest snubs. Carlos Ruiz should have been the starting Catcher, AJ Burnett and AJ Pierzynski didn't even make the team and Andrew McCutchen lost a starting spot to a guy who has been injured fore two months.

Let's talk about Lucas Duda. Before the season the general consensus among fans was that if we were going to surprise people and be good this year, it would be because Lucas Duda broke out and became a dominant power hitter, he even got a NY Times article devoted to that premise. Well we have surprised everyone and are doing better than anyone could have expected, yet Duda has not really broken out. He still has not cracked into positive WAR (currently at negative .2) and has a just enough to not be embarrassing .255 BA. As far as the power goes, he is tied for most home runs on the team with 11, which puts him on pace for about 22. The 11homers club is not a bad place to be, it contains some other noted sluggers including: Dan Uggla, Carlos Pena, Nelson Cruz and Matt Wieters.

All these numbers are fine and his production has been admirable but he has been more of a useful role player than a dynamic break out star. Combined with his average to below average defense it is going to take some more time for me to get on the Lucas love wagon.

Yesterday on Twitter Mets beat writer Andy Martino postulated wether or not it was a good idea to trade Zach Wheeler or other top prospects for a Cole Hamels rental. This kicked off a level of vitriol and hate not seen since the Nick Swisher hate fest of two weeks ago. Frankly, I don't get it. I think this would be a wonderful trade. The Mets were a team we all accepted were going to finish in 5th and right now we are in striking distance of 1st. Adding a top 10 pitcher to a team that already has two dominant aces would make the Mets an absolutely stellar team. It would also allow us to move Chris Young to the bullpen, which would add some needed stabilization. It would give us a back end to rival any 4/5 in baseball and vastly increase of chances of a post season berth. I don't know about anyone else but I think a post season appearance this year would do more than any prospect to change the direction of this franchise.

I understand Wheeler is a great prospect but pitching prospects are very, very volatile. They are the mortgage backed securities of baseball. Wheeler may be great, he may never play in the Majors, but the Mets can win now and that's more important than anything.

5 comments:

  1. The All-star game has always been an exhibition game to me, i will occasionally tune in but i'm not too interested because, well, its long and boring and not really real baseball.
    It certainly isn't fair that Sandoval is starting over Wright, but you have to credit the Giants (front office) for stuffing the ballots for them. And it might give a chance for Wright to play hero since most likely he will be playing the later stages of the game.

    I've liked what i've seen from Duda. To me, it seems like most of his hits come in critical situations, and that's good. However, unlike Ike, it seems like most of Duda's HRs are solo shots or 2-R HR.

    Ah Cole Hamels. Don't know if it is Mets Bias or Philly hate but i just have never liked this guy. I correctly predicted that he would suck in 09 but incorrectly predicted that he would suck in 10. Maybe its the fact that he always gets beat up by the Mets that has me thinking he isn't as good.
    Anyways, it will be interesting to see how much it will take to pry players at the deadline. At one end you have a 2nd wild card which means more buyers less sellers, so that would theoritically increase the price, but then again you have the new CBA which means that the team who gets the player won't be able to get draft picks. Therefore, in my view, it seems like it would take a tad less than what it used to to get a certain player, but i could be very wrong.
    Back to Wheeler for Hamels, i think the main problem is what happens if Wheeler, or (insert top prospect here) does become very good. That means the mets will have to face them for a very long time. The only positive i see is that i forsee the Phillies being subpar for a while seeing as they will be hamstrung by bad contracts in the near future(Howard,Lee,Utley). While hamels may be nice, id still prefer to upgrade the bullpen, which is much more in need and would be much cheaper prospect wise.

    PS. Wouldn't you rather move Gee to the bullpen if we got another SP? Young is much more fragile and i'm guessing takes a long time to warm up which wouldn't be a great match for the bullpen. Plus, he is more consistant than Gee.

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  2. I agree that the ASG is stupid but just like the hall of fame you can't stop yourself from getting caught up in it and wanting your guys to do well.

    I agree that Duda has had lots of critical hits but that is not a consistent skill and more just luck than anything else. We can't expect him to continue doing that.

    I agree, I hate Cole as much as the next guy but he is a good pitcher and would help us win games, so I would be happy to have him.

    I think you have to move Young, Gee has earned his starting spot and is more reliable than young. Gee has a long future as a starter and needs to keep getting starts. Young is on the back end of his career and is a huge injury risk.

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    1. Is it even possible for young to go into the bullpen? Would he even help there? i don't think he could physically get ready quick enough to pitch from the bullpen.

      Has Gee really earned his starting spot? He was pretty bad 2nd half last year and not too good the beginning of this year. It is only recently that he's pitched decently. Meanwhile, Young has shown in his (short) tenure with his Mets that he always give quality outings.

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  3. Lovely post and let me get my two cents worth.

    All star game - could have been worse I guess with a starting middle infield of Brandon Crawford and Freddy Sanchez. Dickey and Wright were deserving. Santana...should get Come Back Player of the Year.

    Lucas Dudas season splits are: 0.572 OPS against lefties, 0.856 OPS against righties. Those critical hits of which you speak have mostly come against RHPs. Duda should in my opinion be a platoon player with Hairston in LF (because Duda does not hit lefties well and is a bad fielder) but this wont happen because the METS don't have a Carlos Beltran type player to stick in RF.

    Trading for a good starting pitcher I am all for it. Jeff brings up an interesting point in that this year is a window of opportunity for the METS to (knock on wood) win the pennant! Lets face it - there are no really good teams this year in the NL. There is a lot of parity and every team has weaknesses (I sound just like Joe Morgan).

    Also, some teams that were highly touted (Sillies and Marlins) have been terrible and are almost out of the race! Those two teams will surely be more competitive next year. The Nats could also be even better next year with older players and fewer injuries. The METS know what they have but not what will be. Who knows how long Wright will be around? Or how long Santana and Dickey will be this good?

    A good starter (Hamels sure but I'll settle for Wandy Rodriguez) would help the bullpen because I too think that Young could be an asset there what with the difficulty opponents have of hitting him before they adjust.

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    1. Thinking about it, the blame for the many all star snubs has to given to the .....giants fans.
      They pretty much caused all these snubs by voting in their many non-allstars.
      Molina and Ruiz both deserve to be over Posey.
      Wright and many other 3b deserve to be over Sandoval.
      Cabrera was a fine choice to be an all-star.

      That's 2 free spots that could have been given to more deserving players.

      I don't think Santana should have been an all-star. There were many other pitchers better than him. (Cueto,Capuano,Vogelsong,Dempster just to name a few)

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