Monday, November 14, 2011

Whats the difference between 4th place,77 wins and 5th place, 69 wins?

Nothing.

A few weeks ago The 'Ropolitans blog posted about the need for Wright and Reyes to return next season. The author took issue with the commonly heard argument that if we are going to lose anyway why does it matter if we lose with Wright and Reyes. He went to on to describe how much MORE terrible we would be without them. I have to say, I don't see the logic. While it is not perfect analysis we can look at Wright and Reyes Wins above Replacement (WAR) to see what 2011 would have looked like without them. According to fangraphs.com Reyes had a WAR of 6.2 and Wright 1.9. Combined this means that Wright and Reyes were good for about 8.1 wins more than if they were replaced by average players.

The Mets finished last season with 77 wins in 4th place. Taking out Wright and Reyes 8.1 leaves us at 68.9 wins, now in 5th place behind the Marlins. Would this honestly be any worse for anyone than 4th place and 77 wins? At the end of the day, the teams make the playoffs, comes close but for a few things or it doesn't matter.

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