Friday, November 11, 2011

Wright and the Wall.


Amid the discussion of Jose Reyes re signing rumors and videos of Jose wearing Miami Marlins helmets is the slightly less possible but still interesting idea that the Met’s could trade David Wright this winter. I would be all over this if the right deal came along. David has underperformed and sustained injuries in his last two years and the numbers he is putting up can be gotten for far less money than he is owed. Many people are saying that we can’t give up on Dave until we give him a shot in the new shallower Citi Field. But who’s to say the shorter dimensions will bring back the old Wright? A crude way to look at this would be to examine his home and away homerun splits in the years he has played in Citi Field. If a shorter fence means more power than he should be hitting more homeruns on the road. Let’s look at the numbers:


       Home HR
        Away HR
2009
5
5
2010
12
17
2011
9
5

In the inaugural Citi field season he hits the same and then we see a five and four home run difference between home and away in the next two years. While it certainly shows that the shorter fences will help, I don’t see the difference to be great enough to believe that the shorter fence is going to be the magic fix for a 30+ home run Wright we are all hoping for. If these numbers are indicative of  anything we can except to see an additional 5-10 homers at best in the new park. People say that Wrights trade value is low now, it may only get worse.

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