Thursday, December 8, 2011

Back of the envelope analysis: New Angels rotation v. Phillies rotation

The Mets didn't manage to sign any fringe closers today so I am going to blog about my favorite topic after the Mets, hating the Phillies. With the acquisition of C.J. Wilson I am now postulating that their rotation is now the best in baseball. Let's do a quick, back of the envelope analysis of the two rotations.

To do this I am going to judge each team on six, pitching only categories (IP, h/9,bb.9.k/9,WHIP and FIP) then pick a winner in each category and give that team a point, most points is the better rotation. For both teams I will only be judging the top four pitchers because it is not clear who the 5th starter in each rotation is.

The results are below, category winners are in bold.


Player
238.10
7.97
1.25
7.25
1.02
2.98
235.20
6.95
2.14
7.56
1.01
3.20
228.20
8.15
2.83
7.01
1.22
4.00
223.10
7.70
2.98
8.30
1.19
3.24

924.60
7.69
2.30
7.53
1.11
3.36







Player
IP
H/9
BB/9
K/9
WHIP
FIP
Halladay
233
8
1.3
8.5
1.04
2.2
Lee
232.2
7.6
1.62
9.21
1.03
2.6
Hamels
216
7
1.83
8.08
0.99
3.05
Worley
139
7.9
2.14
6.02
1.34
3.44

820.2
7.625
1.7225
7.9525
1.1
2.8225

I am judging this as a push. The only category that was won convincingly by either team was the Angels who pitched a ton more innings than the Phillies. Hits per 9 was basically too close to make a difference. I gave the Phillies a win in k/9 but again, it was almost too close to make a difference. The final tally by my rules was 3 category wins for the Phillies, one for the Angels and 2 ties. Ultimately 5 out of 6 categories were remarkably close but I am willing to concede the Phillies have a slight edge. The Angels also should get some extra points for going deeper as Ervin Santana is clearly better than Vance Worley. The results are inconclusive so I will guess at this point that in terms of actual performance, these two teams should be equal.

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